Probability, So Tough yet So Simple! When Did You Last Use it?
We do not realize it, but we use probability in many faces of daily life. Aristotle had said- “The probable is what usually happens”- Though you can’t predict the future, still you can use mathematical probability to determine how possible it is that something may or may not actually happen. Many people often use probability to make better choices in their lives. Unluckily, when they don’t use common sense, few individuals fall prey to highly unlikely get- rich- quick schemes.
If you are told you need operation, you’d want to know the success rate of the surgery. Based upon the stats, you can make an informed decision whether or not it is a good choice. You might decide whether or not to begin a course of medicines, based on other patients’ positive reviews or side effects.
If you are planning an outdoor event or ceremony, you’d want to check the probability of rain spoiling the event. Meteorologists predict weather based upon patterns that have happened in previous years or times. Temperatures and natural calamities such as tornadoes, hurricanes and floods factor into forecasts.
When your team has a coin toss before the game, then you have a 50/50 chance of winning the toss. A basketball player steps up to the free throw line and has a good inclination, based on past performances, whether he’d make the shot. Similarly, a football team tries for a field goal when they think the distance to the goal is close enough that they’d likely make it.
Life expectancy is based on the number of years similar groups have lived in the past. All these ages are used as guidelines by entities such as financial advisers to help clients prepare for their retirement years.
Casino owners aren’t in the business to lose money in any way. The odds are in their favour always. Gamblers play the game, in hope of defying those odds. Like, in the game of blackjack a player has a 1 in 20 chance of getting 21, which is a “blackjack.” So the probability is 5 percent.
Car insurance companies look at your age and driving record while deciding your premium rate. In case they see that you’ve had several accidents, then the likelihood is that you might have another one as well. In that case, the rates quoted for you would be higher than a safe driver’s!
If you are using a game spinner with four sections– red, green, blue and yellow – then you have a 25 percent chance of landing on red, as one of the four sections is red colored. What are the odds that you’re going to roll one die and get an even number on it? You have a 50 percent chance, as three of the six numbers on a die are even.