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A man says truth 3 out of 4 times..he throws a dice nd says its a six..what is the probability it was actually a six..now by bayes theorem if we solve we get 3/8, but by simple logic..he says SOMETHING HAS HAPPE.NED..nd we know 3 out of 4 times SOMETHING actually HAS HAPPENNED..so just like for any other statement..the statement " dice shows 6 " will be true 3/4 times..whats wrng in the reasoning..please help!!!

A man says truth 3 out of 4 times..he throws a dice nd says its a six..what is the probability it was actually a six..now by bayes theorem if we solve we get 3/8, but by simple logic..he says SOMETHING HAS HAPPE.NED..nd we know 3 out of 4 times SOMETHING actually HAS HAPPENNED..so just like for any other statement..the statement " dice shows 6 " will be true 3/4 times..whats wrng in the reasoning..please help!!!

Grade:12

2 Answers

Aman Bansal
592 Points
8 years ago

Dear Swapnam,

P(it is six|reports six) = P(it is 6, reports six)/P(reports
six) = [3/4*1/6] / [(3/4*1/6) + (1/4*5/6*1/5)] = 3/4
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Yogita Bang
39 Points
8 years ago

Dear Aman sir,

In ur answer

P(it is six|reports six) = P(it is 6, reports six)/P(reports six) = [3/4*1/6] / [(3/4*1/6) + (1/4*5/6*1/5)] = 3/4

From where (underlined) 1/5 comes......... PLEASSE EXPLAIN

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